Market Analysis
                                           3rd September- 9th September





  
Monday 3rd September 

Global Market shares will continue increase into 2019
The historic run-up in world shares will continue through 2019, but the outlook for almost half of the major bourses polled by Reuters has slipped, with many now only expected to recoup losses from this year’s sell-off. With a strong performance in 2017, world shares have continued with a strong performance, hitting highs this year. However, with rising interest rates and turmoil caused by trade wars, have made the journey more turbulent. “We expect markets to remain choppy in the months ahead as investors weigh up the various conflicting influences that are now in play. The volatility that we anticipate will at times be a source of discomfort for investors, but it will also be a source of opportunity,” said Paul O’Connor, head of the multi-asset team at Janus Henderson Investors. A consensus from brokers and equity stragestists state that indexes will not rise higher than they did in 2017. The risk that Britain leaves the European Union with no deal means that for the near-term at least, Britain’s FTSE 100 will lag its peers. While the European shares are set to partly recover in the remaining few months this year but aren’t likely to push past January highs, ending the year with a meagre gain and with weak momentum running into 2019.

Tuesday 4th September  

UK companies spending on foreign takeovers falls to lowest since 2013 
Brexit worries seem to have dampened firms desire to make big investments overseas. British-based businesses spent 1.92 billion pounds on acquiring foreign companies, the smallest amount since the third quarter of 2013 and down sharply from a 17-year high of 51.77 billion pounds in the third quarter of 2017.When large acquisitions such as British American Tobacco’s purchase of U.S. cigarette-maker Reynolds American in the third quarter. The value of foreign takeovers of British companies dropped to 6.50 billion pounds from 22.32 billion pounds in the previous quarter, when foreign purchases of gambling group Ladbrokes Coral and payments company Worldpay were completed. A reason for the drop in foreign investments is attributed to Brexit, and the fall in pound making it more expensive for British firms to invest.
  
Wednesday 5th September 

Limited options available for Erdogan to save Turkey from financial collapse
Erdogan has limited options to save Turkey from financial crisis as well as saving himself from blame. After a sweep in the election last June, and now elected as President and abolishing Prime Minister, he has unprecedented control over Turkey. However, as a result he has to face this spiralling crisis alone. Investors rattled by soaring inflation and a widening current account deficit were suddenly confronted by a row between Erdogan and Trump, who doubled tariffs on U.S. imports of Turkish steel and aluminium in to force Turkey to release Andrew Brunson, an evangelical Protestant pastor jailed after an attempted coup in 2016. As the lira lost a quarter of its value last month alone, Erdogan accused the United States of waging “economic war” against Turkey. Some options available to Erdogan, is to make up with the US and Trump, perhaps at the next UN general assembly. Some believe Turkey will revisit trying to join the European Union, with hopes for when Erdogan visits Germany this month that it may lead European efforts to shore up Turkey financially. However, any funds provided by the EU will provide very little help at all. There is a high likelihood, that Turkey will have to go to the IMF for the size of bail-out it needs. The government rules this out as an unacceptable surrender of sovereignty.  
  
Thursday 6th September 

Trade War between the US and China set to escalate
US President Trump preparing to impose tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods and Beijing certain to respond to the measures from the US. The trade war is taken up to another gear. And now with America in current talks with Canada about modernising the North America Free Trade Agreement, this will potentially allow America to turn up the heat on China, if the talks with Canada go well. The world’s two largest economies have already applied tariffs to $50 billion of each other’s goods. Talks aimed at easing tensions ended last month without major breakthroughs. Washington want China to improve market access and intellectual property protections for U.S. companies, cut industrial subsidies and slash a $375 billion trade gap. 
  
Friday 7th September   

If No Deal is avoided for Brexit, the Pound is expected to rise
Forecasters expect the pound to rise 6% if a no deal outcome is avoided. However, if the deal is no deal, then the predictions are of a damaging slide in the pound of up to 15 percent. A recent poll by Reuters gave the chance of a no deal outcome as a 1 in 4 chance.  
 


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